How far, and why, did traditional Catholicism decline during the reign of Elizabeth?

Considering that on the accession of Elizabeth I the majority of men and women in England and Wales were Catholic – from the evidence of wills Protestant loyalty was limited to the south-east where even there it represented a minority – and that by the end of the reign English Catholicism had diminished to only one or two percent of the population, it is fair to say that the extent of the decline in traditional Catholicism was great. The reasons for this can be found by splitting the reign into three time periods where the presence and threat of Catholicism differ significantly. An interesting argument has arisen concerning the explanation of the decline of Catholicism. The historian J. Bossy argues that conservative gentry and clerical leadership did not produce any organized resistance to the 1559 settlement and instead allowed the laity to drift into conformity by attending Protestant church services. He goes on to suggest that it was only the later arrival of the seminary priests from Douai and the Jesuits that saved English Catholicism from complete extinction. Another historian C. Haigh counters this suggesting that Catholic survivalism was strong in the 1560s and that its demise can be attributed to ‘strategic and logistical errors' made by the seminary priests and the Jesuits. It is perhaps easier to agree with Bossy as during the 1560s many Catholics reluctantly accepted the new church, often because of a lack of strong leadership from the papacy. Pope Pius IV hoped to persuade Elizabeth to join the catholic fold and Philip II feared that if the queen was overthrown Mary Queen of Scots would succeed thus driving England into the arms of France. Also the penalties issued to Catholics under the terms of the 1559 settlement were deliberately made light in order to steer them away from attempted opposition. Indeed, the Catholic threat remained dormant during the 1560s and this decade can be seen as the first time period where Catholicism was certainly on the defensive. However, it is a mistake to see the Catholics as completely inactive during this time. The Marian priests who stayed at their posts and had not been either imprisoned or chosen to go into exile, did not conform meekly to Protestantism. Catholic rituals were kept alive within the parish church and accounts show that some churches retained their Catholic altars and priests continued to say masses for the dead. This survivalism remained strongest in the north and as bishops started to complain about the presence of church papists in their dioceses, the government became increasingly aware of the situation. However, to avoid confrontation with the Catholics, Elizabeth preferred to utilize persuasion instead of punishment to deal with the problem. Thus action was only taken if individuals openly defied the law. This approach, which led Catholicism to survive throughout the 1560s, also ensured that the religion was doomed to eventual failure. Until 1569 when the Northern Rebellion broke out, few felt pressurised into recusancy and rebellion and therefore the Elizabethan regime had time to establish itself and win over conservative landowners. It is from 1568 onwards that the Catholic decline halted, and the government was alerted to a potential threat. The lack of any conspiracies or disturbances during the majority of the 1560s demonstrated a decline in the Catholic faith but when continental influences began to halt this decline soon after, serious problems were created for the government. The year 1568 saw a major development which rapidly forced the government to reassess its policy towards Catholics. The arrival of Mary Queen of Scots, a woman with highly-powered contacts in the Catholic courts of Europe, presented an automatic focus for both the plots of English and foreign Catholics. Her presence in England was made especially explosive because she became a pawn in the intrigues of Spain; a nation grown impatient with England's continued heterodoxy, and also her military opposition in the West Indies and Netherlands. Indeed, each of the four main Catholic conspiracies against Elizabeth involved replacing her with Mary with the aid of a Spanish invasion force. Although no such force was to embark until 1588, to have Europe's premier Catholic power and the strong-arm of the Counter-Reformation seeking to undermine the administration was deeply worrying to Elizabeth. The Papacy provided another threat. Its equivocal stance of the 1560s could not withstand Elizabeth's continued heterodoxy, and when Catholic passivity foiled the Rising of the Northern Earls in 1569 Pius V was stirred to issue the Bull â€Å"Regnans in Excelsis† in excommunicating Elizabeth and commanding her subjects â€Å"not to obey her†. In effect, it was now the duty of all good Catholics to repudiate the Queen's authority, but in practice the general apathy and obedience of the Catholic community made an uprising against Elizabeth's authority unlikely. The real threat lay in that it gave foreign powers, most notably Spain, a papal license to threaten England; thus it can be seen that the Papacy indirectly influenced the sending of the Armada in 1588. Incidents such as the Ridolfi Plot in 1571 where a Florentine merchant led a failed attempt to overthrow the Queen, and the Massacre of St Bartholomew's day in 1572 where six thousand Protestants were murdered in France show that the Catholics were capable of serious actions and that these incidents highlight that they were not in decline just yet. The final major Catholic threat were the missionary priests from William Allen's seminary in Douai in the Netherlands. Though the priests were young English gentlemen they had continental training and had links with the Jesuits. Beginning in 1568, their secret preaching undoubtedly saved the Catholic faith from dying out among the gentry, but the threat they posed is harder to determine. They were not politically motivated and did not attempt to directly stir up a Catholic rebellion. It was hoped, however, that the introduction of the Jesuits in the 1580s would breed a new sense of zeal and fanaticism into the generally loyal and patriotic Catholic gentry, so that when a chance came for a restoration of the old faith, enough of them would be prepared to sacrifice their secular obedience for spiritual belief. But the events of 1588 show how they failed in this aim, for, whilst the conspiracies and the Northern Rising had shown an increase in Catholic militancy, when the hoped-for rebellion of the Catholic community failed to materialise in response to the Armada, the English once again showed their reluctance to cause civil strife; all the Catholic gentry families pledged their allegiance to the Queen. The majority of English Catholics were content to retain their beliefs in private, and the attempts by foreign-based missionaries to radicalise their loyalties was probably doomed to failure. However, one must not allow hindsight to make us dismiss the threat and presence of the Catholics simply because they failed to remove Elizabeth. Indeed the government became so perturbed during the 1570s and 1580s that they greatly tightened anti-Catholic legislation such as the increase in recusancy fines to twenty pounds a month and the treasonable offence of being a priest â€Å"ordained beyond the seas†. To Elizabeth, the plots, foreign threat and missionary activity provided a very real threat. So it is not untrue to say that for a period of twenty years the Catholics remained a thorn in the side of Elizabeth's reign and rather than declining the religion stayed put and caused the government problems. However, the decline did come and there is a third period that we must look at in order to highlight the extent of this defeat. A series of events in the 1590s occurred which certainly helped limit the Catholic threat and presence in the country and caused the religion to diminish to the one or two percent that were thought to have been left in 1603. As we have seen, there was loyalty towards Elizabeth shown by the Catholics in their lack of desire to support the Armada. Then in 1587 Mary Queen of Scots was executed due to her involvement in the Babington Plot the previous year. This death deprived the Catholics of a major focal point for their religion and her replacement was to be James VI, a protestant, which did not aid their cause either. Another death, that of the founder of the college for seminary priest William Allen, was also a problem, as now those priests who were attempting to inspire the Catholic community had no inspiration themselves. Indeed the priest allowed squabbles to develop in their midst which distracted them from their aim of mounting a united assault on Protestantism. There was also a rivalry between the secular priests and the Jesuits which surfaced most prominently in 1598 with the ‘Archpriest Controversy'. The argument occurred when the Pope agreed to appoint George Blackwell, an admirer of the Jesuit mission, to have authority over secular priests training in seminaries. The secular priests were outraged and determined to keep their independence appealed to the Pope against his appointment thus earning them the name ‘the Appellants'. Not only did this controversy poison relationship it also uncovered important differences of principle among the priests. In conclusion it is hard to say that by the end of the reign the Catholics were not in decline and perhaps if it were not for the input of the seminary priests then the religion would have become nothing other than a superstitious ritual practiced only in backward communities. Apart from a period where they provided a sustained, yet exaggerated threat causing the government to rethink its policy, the Catholics were weaned from their faith by a slow exposure to Protestantism. Propaganda, persuasion and persecution made the Catholics (although some of the most committed became recusants) drift into conformity. The decline of Catholicism was a steady but expected process.